In a Year's Worth of Weather Forecasts, Are Predictions of ‘Sunny’ Weather More Accurate, or Are Predictions of ‘Rain’ More Accurate?

Archived study

Examines the sunny and rainy base rates in Kunming during 2024 using Open-Meteo weather data. The archived output includes annual and monthly condition tables and a climatology report.

Interpretation and limits

The available endpoints did not provide an independent operational forecast archive. This case describes weather-condition base rates, not a completed comparison of forecast accuracy; hit and false-alarm rates require genuine advance forecasts paired with observations.

Package and provenance

The original .science export and matching poster are preserved byte-for-byte from Hugging Face snapshot b0218fea4fc3fc9aa37ac616aba20e619e242c1e. The package contains the archived conversation, session metadata, and resources listed in its internal manifest. This introduction summarizes the archived record; the research, external sources, and model evaluations were not rerun for this reorganization.

Case files

• Session export
• Case poster